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MARKET EVENTS

Understand the impact of global and domestic events on the market.

OUTLOOKS & ECONOMY

Forward-looking outlook along with global and domestic macro economic trends and concerns.

Equity | Fixed Income

CEO's DESK

A unique perspective and an intresting point of view on the topics that matter to customers , stakeholders and industry.

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Apr-2020 Equity Outlook: Uncertainty is getting priced into current valuations

Over the past quarter, financial markets in India and around the world have witnessed heightened volatility and risk aversion, a consequence of the significant spread of Coronavirus and the resultant slowdown in global economic activity. Global equity markets have melted down at a dizzying rate, and implied volatility has surged to global financial crisis levels.

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Mar-2020 MPC Outcome - RBI comes out with heavy artillery

To address the rising financial and credit market risks and to prevent any financial market disruption caused by the outbreak of the COVID epidemic, the MPC met earlier than scheduled (early April) and agreed to release a barrage of measures.

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Feb-2020 RBI Policy: The Real Transmission

Today’s MPC meeting was all about the transmission of policy rates cuts as RBI announced the conduct of Long Term Repo Operations. The real action was in the “Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies.

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Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Fixed Income Desk

The Government stuck to the fiscal glide path for FY 2020 by resorting to the deviation clause of 50 bps in the FRBM act. Fiscal deficit for FY 20 is thus estimated higher by 50 bps at 3.8%.

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Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Equity Desk

The Union Budget has focused on three themes - Aspirational India, Economic development and Caring Society. Economic Survey has done good job of identifying what is best for Indian Economy and suggested policies that can foster wealth creation in India.

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Dec-2019 RBI Policy: An Unexpected Twist

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today kept the benchmark Policy rates on hold against the consensus and our expectation of a 25bps rate cut. The MPC decision was a unanimous one with all the members voting to hold rates.

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Sep-2019 RBI Policy: View from the Fixed Income

In line with market expectations, RBI today cut the key repo rates by 25 bps, being the 5th time in a row. Together with today’s cut of 25 bps, the overall easing since February stands at 135 bp

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Apr-2019 A Balanced Approach

The MPC today delivered a 25 bps rate cut while maintaining a Neutral Stance. MPC voted 4-2 (Ghate & Viral voted for no cut) in favour of the rate cut while the Neutral Stance was retained with a 5-1 vote.

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Aug - 2020 Strong market despite mixed numbers - Equity Market Views

Indian Equities rose for the third straight month in August (Nifty +2.8%), with the US markets also touching new highs during the month. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Mid-cap gaining 6.6% and BSE Small-cap gaining 10.1%. Among sector indices, the BSE Metals index gained 13%, followed by Realty (+11.6%) and Banks (+9.6%)..

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July - 2020 Positive news cheers markets - Equity Market Views

July was another strong month for Indian equity markets (in line with EM peers) with the Nifty 50 Index rallying 7.5% during the month. The key positives are; better than expected Q1FY21 corporate results (on low expectations base), progress in numerous Covid-19 vaccine trials & treatment, and signs of earlier-than-expected normalization in economic activity.

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June 2020 Hopes of recovery but uncertainty remains- Equity Market Views

Equity markets were strong in June, with the benchmark Nifty Index moving up by 7.5%. The broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap100 Index rallying 10.8% and Nifty SmallCap100 Index rallying 15.3% (the best month for small caps in 6 years). All sectors were up vs May with Realty, Financials and Auto being the outperformers.

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May 2020 Weak economy but strong markets- Equity Market Views

After registering a strong rally in April (up 15% - the highest move in a month in over ten years), May month witnessed a correction of 2.8%. Disappointed with the fiscal stimulus, the Nifty 50 corrected in the first half but recovered in the second half on improving global sentiment, as economies across the world emerged out of lockdowns.

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Apr -2020 Waiting for the economic activity to return- Equity Market Views

The nation was under lockdown throughout the month of April. The Nifty-50 Index recovered 14.7% in the month (best calendar month since May’09). The BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap Indices posted 14% and 16% gains respectively. Among sectoral indices, BSE healthcare gained 26%, followed by auto (+24%) and oil & gas (+20%) indices.

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Mar -2020 Fiscal sops and stimulus to push long end yields - Fixed Income Market Views

CPI for March 2020 printed at 6.58% which was higher than RBI's target of 4% but lower than market expectation of 6.72%. Core inflation (helped by petering off of mobile tariffs) also declined from 4.16% to 4.08%.

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Mar-2020 Market View and portfolio positioning

The equity markets globally and in India have seen a massive correction due to the uncertainties associated with the global macro linked primarily to coronavirus and also the volatility associated with crude oil. The issue with coronavirus is the uncertainty with regards to the time it will linger, fatality rates and the fear of the unknown

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Mar-2020 Impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds

The recent market movements have been unprecedented and this has led to several questions being raised in the minds of the investor as well as the distribution community. Please check some key points on the impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds.

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Feb -2020 Fear of virus bigger than the virus itself ?- Equity Market Views

In February 2020, all the major global indices closed in the red. With high chances of WHO declaring the coronavirus disease as a pandemic, global markets saw a sharp drawdown (US Markets saw the worst weekly fall since the GFC).

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Jan-2020 Earnings are seeing buoyancy led by lower tax rates and low base of FY 2019- Equity Market Views

The Union Budget was presented on 1st February and while there were no stark negatives, a lack of stimulus and policy measures disappointed in the backdrop of heightened expectations.

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Dec-2019 RBI steps in to cool-off yields - Fixed Income Market Views

There is a dichotomy that is prevalent in the markets with macros being weak (high fiscal deficit, overall slowdown, inflation inching up, low credit growth) while markets are scaling new highs on the back of continued flows, risk-on sentiment getting stronger and in general loose fiscal policies.

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Nov-2019 A modest recovery in growth is expected in second half of FY20 - Equity Market Views

Indian markets rallied in the second half of the month driven by both global risk-on and some positive reforms announced locally. Market sentiment was buoyed following the

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Oct-2019 Short-end rates fall on rate cut, long-end unchanged on fiscal worries - Fixed Income Market Views

Result Season of Q2FY20 is seeing decent earnings growth as many companies are shifting to the reduced tax rates as announced by the government.

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Sep-2019 Definite shift in government approach towards corporate India - Equity Market Views

Government has been talking about accelerating economic growth for quite some time and articulated its aspiration to be $5tn economy by 2024 but something missing to make this reality

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Aug-2019 Yields harden despite rate cut as fiscal concerns emerge - Fixed Income Market Views

Pessimism is all around as major newspaper headlines are all about deteriorating economy, job losses etc. Though overall scenario looks challenging in the near term..

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Jul-2019 Volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out - Equity Market Views

Budget presented in July post the completion of the general elections, stuck to the path of fiscal prudence and lowered fiscal deficit target to 3.3% of GDP.

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Jun-2019 Weak growth, improving liquidity and rate cut push down yields - Fixed Income Market Views

Come July, the full year budget, progress of monsoon, trade war developments and RBI policy meet would be key monitorables. Economic growth and earnings recovery are key

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May-2019 Economy is currently in a transitionary mode - Equity Market Views

Overall FY 19 NIFTY earnings growth stood close to 10%. Earnings shortfall in financials and Auto sectors are partially offset by currency led gains in IT sector.

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Apr-2019 Election event risk, tight liquidity keep yields elevated - Fixed Income Market Views

Quarter 4 earnings have been mixed so far, though result season still has still one month to go. On 23rd May, the results of the ongoing general elections would be announced and provide short term direction to markets.

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Aug -2020 An Investment behaviour bias to guard against during difficult times

In the April to June quarter as the markets witnessed sharp correction, there were quite a few headlines suggesting that net flows intoequity mutual funds had dipped, the net monthly SIP input value at industry level dropped by more than 10-12% and so on.

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July -2020 In Investing, You are likely to be your own worst enemy

Benjamin Graham, considered by many professional investors as the father of modern day value investing once said that “The investor’s chief problem–and his worst enemy–is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

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June 2020 Protocols and checklists help in saving lives and in managing money too

The first line of defense against Covid 19 has turned out to be the simple practice of washing hands. What seems like a simple practice is actually the most important protocol in the world of healthcare. Protocol is a set of rules and guidelines related to a particular field.

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May 2020 Post the Lockdown

I hope that you are your family members are safe and continue to remain safe in the current pandemic. In my earlier communications I have consciously stayed away from commenting on the economy and other macro factors as under normal circumstances, markets go through cycles and what helps investors are the decisions around asset allocations, financial plans and discipline to stick to them through the cycles.

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Apr -2020 Beyond The Headlines

Hope you and your family are safe and are taking every precaution to remain safe and healthy. This pandemic is undoubtedly an unprecedented one for the current global population. The spread of Covid 19 and its likely impact on the global economy is a topic that gets discussed every day.

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Mar -2020 Don't throw the baby out with the bath water!

That proverb best explains what to guard against as investors. Investing has always been and will always remain first about buying into good businesses. Dire headlines on index levels distract from this.

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Feb -2020 Diversification, the simple solution to contain portfolio volatility

We are just two months into 2020 but quite a few equity market participants are feeling like it has been a long time owing to the volatility we have seen in the recent past . A month back if you looked at any market report and equity outlook for 2020, none of them could have possibly mentioned anything about Corona virus;

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Jan–2020 Is your portfolio future ready?

We are living in an increasingly globalised world. As an Indian consumer we have benefitted from access to a variety of high quality goods and services that are produced outside India but not produced domestically. Be it mobile phones or luxury cars?

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Dec-2019 To Buy or Not to Buy?

Quite a few things have changed in the last decade - the rise of an on demand economy, e-commerce, move towards a cash less society, advances in health tech, energy efficiency and so on.

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Nov-2019 What is your Plan B?

I have been writing to you about the thumb rules related to the world of investments. The idea behind sharing these simple thumb rules is to simplify the various aspects of financial planning of you.

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Oct-2019 How do I plan my household budget?

The equity market in India have given a very valuable investment lesson this year. For the large part of the year post elections the markets were driven by the negative data points related to the economy, local and global.

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Sep-2019 How do I arrive at my Retirement corpus number?

In my last letter, I had mentioned about thumb rules that are useful for getting a sense of various aspects of a financial plan. I hope to cover a few more of these thumb rules related to planning your finances.

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Aug-2019 Thumb Rules that help you make asset allocation decisions simple

Till the recent past, all of us had a family doctor who had this amazing ability to predict how long a fever would last, that too without conducting any medical test.

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Jul-2019 We are now PGIM India

PGIM, The Global Investment Management Business of US-based Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI), completes Acquisition of DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers.

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Jun-2019 Return per unit of volatility

Mutual Funds are subject to market risk…This disclaimer is repeated in all forms of communication by the Industry.

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May-2019 Investments for Tax Savings, Sooner the Better

This financial year start with the overhang of general elections in the month of May. Along with uncertainity sorrounding the outcome of elections

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Apr-2019 Keeping the faith in SIP Investments

The trend of financialization of assets has picked up over the last few years thanks to slowdown in real estate and lackluster movement in gold prices.

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