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MARKET EVENTS

Understand the impact of global and domestic events on the market.

OUTLOOKS & ECONOMY

Forward-looking outlook along with global and domestic macro economic trends and concerns.

Equity | Fixed Income

CEO's DESK

A unique perspective and an intresting point of view on the topics that matter to customers , stakeholders and industry.

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June - 2021 A dovish and pro-growth policy, reiterating support to liquidity and yields

The MPC meeting through an unanimous vote (6-0) decided to keep all key policy rates unchanged. With a view to reviving growth and sustaining it on a durable basis, the MPC decided to retain an accommodative policy stance while keeping liquidity in surplus mode.

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Apr-2021 A dovish and pro growth policy, reiterating support to liquidity and yields

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting outcome was along expected lines with RBI leaving all key policy rates unchanged. At the same time, RBI committed to support yields and liquidity as in the previous meetings using the entire array of tools at its disposal.

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Feb-2021 Status quo on rates – Liquidity stance remains accommodative

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously (6-0) decided to maintain all policy rates at status quo while also retaining the liquidity stance as “accommodative”. Further liquidity management and normalisation is now likely to be graded and gradual to prevent any market disruption or impair financial stability.

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Dec-2020 Status quo on rates and continued dovish stance

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting held today 4th December 2020, voted unanimously (6-0) to maintain status quo on key policy rates. The policy retained a dovish tone spelling continuity on all counts.

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Apr-2020 Equity Outlook: Uncertainty is getting priced into current valuations

Over the past quarter, financial markets in India and around the world have witnessed heightened volatility and risk aversion, a consequence of the significant spread of Coronavirus and the resultant slowdown in global economic activity. Global equity markets have melted down at a dizzying rate, and implied volatility has surged to global financial crisis levels.

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Mar-2020 MPC Outcome - RBI comes out with heavy artillery

To address the rising financial and credit market risks and to prevent any financial market disruption caused by the outbreak of the COVID epidemic, the MPC met earlier than scheduled (early April) and agreed to release a barrage of measures.

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Feb-2020 RBI Policy: The Real Transmission

Today’s MPC meeting was all about the transmission of policy rates cuts as RBI announced the conduct of Long Term Repo Operations. The real action was in the “Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies.

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Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Fixed Income Desk

The Government stuck to the fiscal glide path for FY 2020 by resorting to the deviation clause of 50 bps in the FRBM act. Fiscal deficit for FY 20 is thus estimated higher by 50 bps at 3.8%.

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Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Equity Desk

The Union Budget has focused on three themes - Aspirational India, Economic development and Caring Society. Economic Survey has done good job of identifying what is best for Indian Economy and suggested policies that can foster wealth creation in India.

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Dec-2019 RBI Policy: An Unexpected Twist

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today kept the benchmark Policy rates on hold against the consensus and our expectation of a 25bps rate cut. The MPC decision was a unanimous one with all the members voting to hold rates.

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Sep-2019 RBI Policy: View from the Fixed Income

In line with market expectations, RBI today cut the key repo rates by 25 bps, being the 5th time in a row. Together with today’s cut of 25 bps, the overall easing since February stands at 135 bp

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Apr-2019 A Balanced Approach

The MPC today delivered a 25 bps rate cut while maintaining a Neutral Stance. MPC voted 4-2 (Ghate & Viral voted for no cut) in favour of the rate cut while the Neutral Stance was retained with a 5-1 vote.

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May -2021 Growth, results better than expected - Equity Market View

Indian markets continued their upward journey with the Nifty Index up 6.7% in the month on the back of a decline in new Covid infections (down 60% from its peak) and the possibility of return to normalcy gathering pace. The broader markets outperformed with BSE Midcap 150 Index up 6.6% and BSE Small Cap 250 Index up 9.1%.

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Apr -2021 Vaccines, earnings offer dose of relief - Equity Market View

Renewed restrictions across India, due to a surge in daily Covid-19 cases to 400k+, led to the Nifty (-0.4%) underperforming the global markets during April. FIIs turned net sellers for the first time in 2021 as the healthcare infrastructure of the country appeared to be overwhelmed with news reports of shortage of hospital beds, oxygen and medical supplies.

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Mar -2021 Constructive outlook despite an unrepeatable performance in FY21 - Equity Market View

Amidst rising volatility, Nifty closed 1.2% higher in March 2021. It came off its highs as possibility of a second wave of coronavirus and rising bond yields played spoilsport. However, for the fiscal year, Nifty was up 71% which was its best performance in last ten years.

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Feb -2021 Market shows promise of recovery after the unlock phase - Equity Market View

Amid volatile sessions, Nifty-50 Index gained 6.7% in February. The month started on a positive note with the announcement of the Union Budget. Key benchmark indices gained 5% on February 1 as there was no change in tax rates, the focus was on growth and increase in spending.

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Jan -2021 Budget boost to stock market - Equity Market View

After a strong December, Indian markets corrected sharply in the second half of January, leading to a 2.5% decline for the month. This was primarily due to weak global markets, risk-on sentiment, and FIIs selling. While Auto and Telecom sectors were outperformers, Pharma and Metals were the laggards..

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Jan-2021 Expectations from the Budget 2021

India faced one of its weakest years on record, impacted severely by the pandemic. Economic activity slumped through the initial months of the pandemic until June before gradually resuming post September.

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Dec - 2020 Ending the year on a high view

The year 2020 ended at close to all-time highs for markets, with Nifty gaining 7.8% in Dec 2020 helped by continued inflows from FIIs on the back of the risk-on sentiment. Interestingly, the month saw the Nifty Index closing in the red only on 3 days – the lowest number since its launch..

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Nov - 2020 A Period of Positivity - Equity Market View

The Nifty50 Index rose sharply in November (+11.4%), touching new lifetime highs and outperforming regional markets such as Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Philippines. A gradual improvement in economic activity, driven by pent-up and festive demand,

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Oct - 2020 Near term volatility? - Equity Market View

After a slight dip in the month of September, Indian markets continued their positive run in Oct 2020 and was up 3.5% (NIFTY) on the back of good inflows from FIIs. Globally, markets were a bit choppy as US elections related uncertainty and the re-emergence of lockdowns in Europe weighed on markets..

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Sep - 2020 Unlocking the Economy - Equity Market View

After 3 straight months of gains, Indian markets faced bouts of volatility in September, with Nifty declining by 1.2%. Broader markets fared better, with Nifty Midcap Index gaining 1.8% and Nifty Small Cap Index gaining 4.2%. IT and Healthcare were the top performing sectors, while Financials and Telecom dragged the markets down..

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Aug - 2020 Strong market despite mixed numbers - Equity Market View

Indian Equities rose for the third straight month in August (Nifty +2.8%), with the US markets also touching new highs during the month. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Mid-cap gaining 6.6% and BSE Small-cap gaining 10.1%. Among sector indices, the BSE Metals index gained 13%, followed by Realty (+11.6%) and Banks (+9.6%)..

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July - 2020 Positive news cheers markets - Equity Market View

July was another strong month for Indian equity markets (in line with EM peers) with the Nifty 50 Index rallying 7.5% during the month. The key positives are; better than expected Q1FY21 corporate results (on low expectations base), progress in numerous Covid-19 vaccine trials & treatment, and signs of earlier-than-expected normalization in economic activity.

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June 2020 Hopes of recovery but uncertainty remains- Equity Market View

Equity markets were strong in June, with the benchmark Nifty Index moving up by 7.5%. The broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap100 Index rallying 10.8% and Nifty SmallCap100 Index rallying 15.3% (the best month for small caps in 6 years). All sectors were up vs May with Realty, Financials and Auto being the outperformers.

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May 2020 Weak economy but strong markets- Equity Market View

After registering a strong rally in April (up 15% - the highest move in a month in over ten years), May month witnessed a correction of 2.8%. Disappointed with the fiscal stimulus, the Nifty 50 corrected in the first half but recovered in the second half on improving global sentiment, as economies across the world emerged out of lockdowns.

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Apr -2020 Waiting for the economic activity to return- Equity Market View

The nation was under lockdown throughout the month of April. The Nifty-50 Index recovered 14.7% in the month (best calendar month since May’09). The BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap Indices posted 14% and 16% gains respectively. Among sectoral indices, BSE healthcare gained 26%, followed by auto (+24%) and oil & gas (+20%) indices.

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Mar -2020 Fiscal sops and stimulus to push long end yields - Fixed Income Market View

CPI for March 2020 printed at 6.58% which was higher than RBI's target of 4% but lower than market expectation of 6.72%. Core inflation (helped by petering off of mobile tariffs) also declined from 4.16% to 4.08%.

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Mar-2020 Market View and portfolio positioning

The equity markets globally and in India have seen a massive correction due to the uncertainties associated with the global macro linked primarily to coronavirus and also the volatility associated with crude oil. The issue with coronavirus is the uncertainty with regards to the time it will linger, fatality rates and the fear of the unknown

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Mar-2020 Impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds

The recent market movements have been unprecedented and this has led to several questions being raised in the minds of the investor as well as the distribution community. Please check some key points on the impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds.

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Feb -2020 Fear of virus bigger than the virus itself ?- Equity Market View

In February 2020, all the major global indices closed in the red. With high chances of WHO declaring the coronavirus disease as a pandemic, global markets saw a sharp drawdown (US Markets saw the worst weekly fall since the GFC).

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Jan-2020 Earnings are seeing buoyancy led by lower tax rates and low base of FY 2019- Equity Market View

The Union Budget was presented on 1st February and while there were no stark negatives, a lack of stimulus and policy measures disappointed in the backdrop of heightened expectations.

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Dec-2019 RBI steps in to cool-off yields - Fixed Income Market View

There is a dichotomy that is prevalent in the markets with macros being weak (high fiscal deficit, overall slowdown, inflation inching up, low credit growth) while markets are scaling new highs on the back of continued flows, risk-on sentiment getting stronger and in general loose fiscal policies.

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Nov-2019 A modest recovery in growth is expected in second half of FY20 - Equity Market View

Indian markets rallied in the second half of the month driven by both global risk-on and some positive reforms announced locally. Market sentiment was buoyed following the

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Oct-2019 Short-end rates fall on rate cut, long-end unchanged on fiscal worries - Fixed Income Market View

Result Season of Q2FY20 is seeing decent earnings growth as many companies are shifting to the reduced tax rates as announced by the government.

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Sep-2019 Definite shift in government approach towards corporate India - Equity Market View

Government has been talking about accelerating economic growth for quite some time and articulated its aspiration to be $5tn economy by 2024 but something missing to make this reality

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Aug-2019 Yields harden despite rate cut as fiscal concerns emerge - Fixed Income Market View

Pessimism is all around as major newspaper headlines are all about deteriorating economy, job losses etc. Though overall scenario looks challenging in the near term..

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Jul-2019 Volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out - Equity Market View

Budget presented in July post the completion of the general elections, stuck to the path of fiscal prudence and lowered fiscal deficit target to 3.3% of GDP.

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Jun-2019 Weak growth, improving liquidity and rate cut push down yields - Fixed Income Market View

Come July, the full year budget, progress of monsoon, trade war developments and RBI policy meet would be key monitorables. Economic growth and earnings recovery are key

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May-2019 Economy is currently in a transitionary mode - Equity Market View

Overall FY 19 NIFTY earnings growth stood close to 10%. Earnings shortfall in financials and Auto sectors are partially offset by currency led gains in IT sector.

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Apr-2019 Election event risk, tight liquidity keep yields elevated - Fixed Income Market View

Quarter 4 earnings have been mixed so far, though result season still has still one month to go. On 23rd May, the results of the ongoing general elections would be announced and provide short term direction to markets.

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May -2021 To Crypto or not to Crypto

In my previous communication, I had written about portfolio “co-morbidities”. The idea was to highlight that diversification is the key to have a successful financial journey. The essence of diversification is creating a portfolio of uncorrelated assets.

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Apr -2021 Portfolio Co-morbidities

The world is currently torn between optimism about a massive vaccination drive that is underway and pessimism due to the onset of the second wave of Covid in various parts. The second wave in India has created an environment of gloom.

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Mar -2021 Coming out stronger from a second wave

We have just completed a financial year that is difficult to describe in a single word. “Unprecedented“ possibly does not capture the wide range of emotions, like anxiety, depression, sense of relief etc that we went through as a society.

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Feb -2021 Financial Housekeeping: A need of the hour for many

The much awaited vaccines for COVID-19 are finally here. Over the course of the next few months, hopefully a large portion of the population will be vaccinated and we will be able to resume our normal lives. The past twelve months have arguably been the most challenging for businesses to ensure uninterrupted operations

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Jan -2021 Embrace the new

2021 has begun on a positive note. Approval for use of multiple vaccines, faster than anticipated recovery on the economic front, rising corporate profitability, rising stock markets and a pro-growth budget are helping relegate the dark memories of the Covid 19 pandemic into the background..

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Dec-2020 Health is True Wealth

After an extremely challenging year we are finally seeing a ray of hope on the vaccine front. Challenges of distribution logistics and even efficacy and acceptability will remain but clarity and confidence on this issue has been evolving. Few quarters down the line this phase will be relegated into the background..

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Nov -2020 A Case for Investing in Emerging Market Equities

We are now in the last month of what can be termed as an unprecedented year. At the beginning of the year no one would have envisaged the way the year would pan out. We experienced a major human crisis that ultimately impacted economies around the globe.

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Oct -2020 Watch out for over-simplifying investment decisions

Wikipedia defines bias as a disproportionate weight in favor of or against an idea or thing. It also goes on to mention that biases can be innate or learned. In my experience this is true. Bias is at play in all decision making including investment decisions..

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Sep -2020 A bias to watch out for while taking Investment decisions

I have been writing to you about various biases that get inbuilt in the human mind. These biases impact the quality of decision making and hence the outcomes that define the quality of life. Even investment decisions are not insulated from biases.

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Aug -2020 An Investment behaviour bias to guard against during difficult times

In the April to June quarter as the markets witnessed sharp correction, there were quite a few headlines suggesting that net flows intoequity mutual funds had dipped, the net monthly SIP input value at industry level dropped by more than 10-12% and so on.

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July -2020 In Investing, You are likely to be your own worst enemy

Benjamin Graham, considered by many professional investors as the father of modern day value investing once said that “The investor’s chief problem–and his worst enemy–is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

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June 2020 Protocols and checklists help in saving lives and in managing money too

The first line of defense against Covid 19 has turned out to be the simple practice of washing hands. What seems like a simple practice is actually the most important protocol in the world of healthcare. Protocol is a set of rules and guidelines related to a particular field.

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May 2020 Post the Lockdown

I hope that you are your family members are safe and continue to remain safe in the current pandemic. In my earlier communications I have consciously stayed away from commenting on the economy and other macro factors as under normal circumstances, markets go through cycles and what helps investors are the decisions around asset allocations, financial plans and discipline to stick to them through the cycles.

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Apr -2020 Beyond The Headlines

Hope you and your family are safe and are taking every precaution to remain safe and healthy. This pandemic is undoubtedly an unprecedented one for the current global population. The spread of Covid 19 and its likely impact on the global economy is a topic that gets discussed every day.

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Mar -2020 Don't throw the baby out with the bath water!

That proverb best explains what to guard against as investors. Investing has always been and will always remain first about buying into good businesses. Dire headlines on index levels distract from this.

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Feb -2020 Diversification, the simple solution to contain portfolio volatility

We are just two months into 2020 but quite a few equity market participants are feeling like it has been a long time owing to the volatility we have seen in the recent past . A month back if you looked at any market report and equity outlook for 2020, none of them could have possibly mentioned anything about Corona virus;

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Jan–2020 Is your portfolio future ready?

We are living in an increasingly globalised world. As an Indian consumer we have benefitted from access to a variety of high quality goods and services that are produced outside India but not produced domestically. Be it mobile phones or luxury cars?

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Dec-2019 To Buy or Not to Buy?

Quite a few things have changed in the last decade - the rise of an on demand economy, e-commerce, move towards a cash less society, advances in health tech, energy efficiency and so on.

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Nov-2019 What is your Plan B?

I have been writing to you about the thumb rules related to the world of investments. The idea behind sharing these simple thumb rules is to simplify the various aspects of financial planning of you.

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Oct-2019 How do I plan my household budget?

The equity market in India have given a very valuable investment lesson this year. For the large part of the year post elections the markets were driven by the negative data points related to the economy, local and global.

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Sep-2019 How do I arrive at my Retirement corpus number?

In my last letter, I had mentioned about thumb rules that are useful for getting a sense of various aspects of a financial plan. I hope to cover a few more of these thumb rules related to planning your finances.

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Aug-2019 Thumb Rules that help you make asset allocation decisions simple

Till the recent past, all of us had a family doctor who had this amazing ability to predict how long a fever would last, that too without conducting any medical test.

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Jul-2019 We are now PGIM India

PGIM, The Global Investment Management Business of US-based Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI), completes Acquisition of DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers.

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Jun-2019 Return per unit of volatility

Mutual Funds are subject to market risk…This disclaimer is repeated in all forms of communication by the Industry.

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May-2019 Investments for Tax Savings, Sooner the Better

This financial year start with the overhang of general elections in the month of May. Along with uncertainity sorrounding the outcome of elections

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Apr-2019 Keeping the faith in SIP Investments

The trend of financialization of assets has picked up over the last few years thanks to slowdown in real estate and lackluster movement in gold prices.

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